Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Sat, August 08, 2009 23:50:48In Norrköpings Tidningar today - they announce that Östergötlands läns landsting have made up their mind about who to get vaccine first. Firstly - Lung and Cardiovascular patients, immuno-disease or suppressed patients, HIV-patients, poor-controled diabetic patients and children with severe diseases.
This goes straight opposite to experiences from earlier pandemics and experiences so far from swine-flu - where young and healthy people have suffered the most.
There are also decisions made that healthy people who come first in que will have to stand back and leave the position in favor of prioritized groups
The question is how this decision will affect society and companies?
http://nt.se/nyheter/artikel.aspx?articleid=5442238
Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Thu, July 23, 2009 21:19:46Yesterday, Dagens Nyheter published an article on the pandemic preparedness among Swedish companies. Some have made pandemic preparedness plans (PPP) and contingency plans (CP) and some haven´t.
In the article there were suggestions and discussions on pandemic-vaccine and antivirals to protect employees from flu resp. treat employees who have been infected.
It´s needed to say that you can´t count for vacine to be available at the time for the first wave as it´s predicted to start by mid august and the vaccine is to be delivered in september. Vaccine is needed to be given weeks before infection and can not be used as a treatment to cure already infected people.
As for antivirals - Swedish law and regulations don´t permit companies to stokpile pharmaceuticals for treatment of employees (unless you have a special licence eg. pharmaceutical companies). In addition it´s only pharmacies that have the right to distribute pharmaceuticals.
The single most important weapon to fight the pandemic is KNOWLEDGE AMONG RESPONSIBLE EMPLOYEES.
http://www.dn.se/ekonomi/sa-ska-bolagen-bemastra-smittan-1.915930
www.pandemiplan.com
Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Wed, July 08, 2009 00:09:13To date 88640 persons have caught the H1N1 infection according to ECDC reports. For Sweden todays number is 100 and another 13 suspected.
The mortality rate is still low at approx. 0.4-0,5%.
In June authoroties anounced that they´ve ordered 18 million doses of vaccine for the Swedish citizens. There have been worries about the delivery - where the first delivery (sept) may only cover 1/4 of the population.
No matter what - the most important protection is knowledge and preparedness.
The illness is mild (so far) and the main problem is the great number of ill people - which may cause severe effects on the society and major economic and productional problems for comapanies.
Experts calculates for somewhat 40% illness-rate during 3-4 weeks - this may cause closing of daycare centers, schools and major problems in services from society (as Försäkringskassan, HeathCare Providers and so on).
What effects to expect for food supply and possibilities to maintain open food-stores I have no clue about.
Even if you have a vaccine-shot you can´t be more than 80% sure of not getting infected - why there is important to stay away from infected people, wash hands and try to avoid crowded areas.
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Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Fri, June 12, 2009 21:01:31According to an article in Dagens Nyeter (dn.se). There is a great risk that 75% of Swedens citizens will have to wait for vaccine towards the H1N1 virus.
Prioritized groups for vaccine in Sweden are: Elderly, severe heart or lung disease, pregnancy patients. This is just opposite (excl pregnancy) of the predicted citizens to be infected during a pandemic - which is young healthy and employment-aged citizens.
At the same time, according to who, it will take somewhat 3-6 moths until a widely acheivable vaccine is ready.
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http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/tre-av-fyra-far-vanta-pa-vaccin-1.890310
Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Thu, June 11, 2009 21:50:01Now, WHO have anounced that we have a pandemic situation. The H1N1 virus is widely spread on all continents.
Still it´s quite slow - but it may keep slow during summer and come with full force during fall.
To societies and companies this means:
- They should have their Pandemic Preparedness Plan ready!
- They should have their contingency plan ready!
- Responsible persons in these planse should have proper knowledge about how a pandemic might affect society and their own business - otherwise the plans are worthless!
www.pandemiplan.com
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Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Fri, June 05, 2009 23:54:16ECDC today reports of a total of 14 cases in sweden and one more suspected. The numbers have doubled within a week.
Worldwide we now have over 20000 cases and it´s still rising by numerous cases every day.
Hopefully it slows down or doesn´t increase in speed regarding numbers of infected during summer.
But - it´s not impossible it will come back with renewed strength during fall.
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Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Wed, June 03, 2009 00:03:00According to the ECDC there are now over 18000 cases of H1N1 infections to date. The spread is still quite slow and as epidemiologist Annika Lindhe says it may slow down during summer - to come back during the fall to maybe turn in to a pandemic.
Companies and societies still have a little time to prepare.
A pandemic is likely to cause somewhat 25% sickleave during 6-8 weeks and an additional 15% who stays at home for reasons connected to the flu (eg. care for ill family-members, due to closed schools and so on).
Media reports are low (at least in Sweden) right now which causes people to think "it´s over" - but it haven´t even started yet!
On the other hand both healthcare-services (for obvious reasons), government and media is concearned about the severity of illness... but...
.. The effect on the society (food supply, transports, banking etc) is what should concern...
www.pandemiplan.com
Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Sun, May 24, 2009 02:48:31From the WHO reports, there are still reasons to be concearned about the evolvement in the H1N1 spread.
According to reports there are now 12022 humans infected in 43 countries. US alone has approx. 6500 infected reported so far and still counting for more.
Strange finding so far is that no country in Africa is affected - and even though there are a rapid increase in Japan there are strangely low numbers in China, Indonesia for instance.
Reports also say that elderly people seem to have resistance as only 1% of the infected are elderly - as far as I know this is expected as it´s awaited as a virus with pandemic potential will strike mainly against young and healthy people.
The infections still seems to be quite mild and the virus is still sensitive to antiviral treatment (neuroaminidase inhibitors).
On the other hand - the main issue (for society and companies) if this becomes a pandemic are the fact that:
- Schools and children daycare may close
- logistics for food and other supplies may be affected
- transports like busses, trains and subways may stop or delayed
- people stay home for illness and other reasons - affects productivity and profitability
- and more...
To keep wheels going companies have to plan for this and protect their business...
The most important protection is - KNOWLEDGE!
