Pandemic Preparedness

Pandemic Preparedness

Pandemiplan.com

Tis blog is a forum to discuss and inform society and interested people about the pandemic issue. Feel free to comment! If you want to publish new posts you´ll have to get that licence. Feel free to ask for this possibility by mail to info@pandemiplan.com

14 cases in Sweden + 1 suspected

Pandemiplan.comPosted by Mats Espander Fri, June 05, 2009 23:54:16

ECDC today reports of a total of 14 cases in sweden and one more suspected. The numbers have doubled within a week.

Worldwide we now have over 20000 cases and it´s still rising by numerous cases every day.

Hopefully it slows down or doesn´t increase in speed regarding numbers of infected during summer.

But - it´s not impossible it will come back with renewed strength during fall.

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Posted by Björn Olsen Sat, June 06, 2009 14:01:41

This is a good rehersal how fast it will go and a glimpse of what is going to happen if we have an introduction of a entirely new infleunsa A virus in the human population. The mexicoinfluensa virus has circulated for a while mainly in the pig and and partly in the human population. Even if the immunity against it is not optimal the situation will definitely be worse in an eventual future introduction of a new virus like H6N4, H4N6 or whatever virus we do not have any herd immunity against. With its 7 billions individuals, humans are the second most common mammal on earth today. Together with the rapid communications over the globe this is a fantastic arena for a new virus.

Another issue is wheter it will come back in the fall with renewed strenght. I do not believe that. This will go on and escalate. More cases, but not necessarily more pathogenic. I´m not sure we can expect pronounced vawes in this the pandemic. With the population size it will probably continue until the herd immunty is increasing balancing the spread of the virus.

Posted by Mats Espander Sat, June 06, 2009 10:46:42

According to Annika Lindhe (Swedish epidmiologist) it might slow down during summer and comes back with renewed strength in sep-nov. No one knows for sure!

Posted by Roy Sat, June 06, 2009 01:41:39

Its not slowing down or going away.